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Why is the refugee crisis all over the news? How is this related to Syria? Why should we care at all?
This video by Kurzgesagt will throw some light on the topic and will make it easy to understand the crisis in a better way.
To understand the root cause of this migration deeply, watch this amazing video by Vox.
Historical background. Syria has been ruled by dictators for dozens of years – first by Assad the father (Hafez al-Assad), then by Assad the son (Bashar al-Assad). The Assads belonged to a branch of the Ba’ath Party which also ruled Iraq under Saddam Hussein. The House of Assad is mostly secular, but represents a minority Muslim sect called the Alawis that populate an area along the Mediterranean coast, while most of Syria does not belong to this sect. Hence the popular uprising a few years ago during the Arab Spring when the people of several Muslim countries threw away unpopular governments. Clearly, Assad’s claims to have been elected by an overwhelming majority were false, and the elections were not legitimate, as asserted by the Gulf Cooperation Council, the EU, the US, and UN’s Secretary General.
Foreign involvement. Syria would have gone the same way as other Arab spring countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya) if not for Russia and Iran (a Shiite Muslim country), which supported Assad with weapons, ammunition, military advisors and troops. Nevertheless, the insurgency (supported by the Gulf Monarchies, dominated by Sunni Muslims, and partially by the US) managed to grind down the Syrian military. Syria’s immediate neighbors are trying to stay out of the conflict, although Jordan is hosting training camps for some opposition groups. Turkey and Israel have strong militaries capable of resolving the conflict, but would not be welcome by Arabs in Syria or elsewhere. Also, Turkey is not on good terms with Syrian Kurds that control areas adjacent to the Turkish border, because Turkish Kurds have been defying the government for a very long time. Turkey is a NATO country, and is backed up by NATO members – the US, the UK, France, Canada and the Netherlands. Other key players in the region – Saudi Arabia, Israel and Jordan (smaller, but has a significant border with Syria) – are close US allies. Keep in mind that India is not taking sides, due to its long tradition of being non-aligned in world conflicts. China is not taking sides because it rarely shows keen interest in conflicts far away from East and Southeast Asia.
Parties to the conflict. Given that Syria has many religions and sects, the insurgency consists of many groups that aren’t friends or allies. Syrian Kurds in the North are strong and control their territory, but don’t try to expand (they are supported by the US, but have complicated relations with Turkey). The Free Syrian Army is considered moderate and aims for Syria’s key population centers, it is supported by the Gulf monarchies and partially by the US. Jaysh al-Islam is a large and fairly successful umbrella group with support from Saudi Arabia. The al-Nusra Front is part of Al Qaeda and considered terrorist. Some groups are condemned by Al Qaeda for their cruelty and disregard for human life, they are viewed by most as pure eveil (they execute hostages, rape and enslave women of different faith, force men to fight against their will, etc). They are called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) or Daeish, are Sunni, are most successful in the battlefield, control sparsely populated areas and operate oil wells. The US has been reluctant to send advanced weapons to moderate fighters, fearing the weapons could end up with ISIS. Russia (where most Muslims are Sunni) and Iran (Shia) support only the Syrian government, claim to attack ISIS, but in reality do not make a distinction between ISIS and other insurgent groups.
All countries are officially against ISIS, but ISIS seems to draw support from some shadowy foreign forces and managed to attract thousands of Muslim fighters from all of the world – about 1700 from Russia (by Russian estimates), several times more from Western Europe, and even more from nearby countries. At some point, ISIS extended the fight into Iraq and overrun Iraqi army in Mosul, capturing US-supplied tanks and armored vehicles. In response, the US helped reorganize the Iraqi government and military, supplied military instructors and helped with airstrikes. Most of the captured hardware is now destroyed by US, French, Canadian, Australian, Saudi and Jordanian airstrikea, putting ISIS on the defensive in Iraq and Syria. Iran helped Iraq and Syria a lot with ground forces and training (which is not surprising, given a long shared border and a common dominant religion – Shia Islam, whereas ISIS is Sunni).
Recent developments. The Syrian government does not control most of the territory and lost some major population centers. Russia’s and Iran’s past support were not enough, as government forces lost strategic military bases, and Russia could not reliably base its troops in Syria. So, Russia built a new air force base in Latakia with barracks for 2K troops (Assad asked Russia to do that). It recently stationed 30-40 airplanes there, along with helicopters, and 500 marines as guards. It also sent irregulars (some with experience from E.Ukraine) to a remote Syrian airbase that has been surrounded by the insurgents for a long time. Apparently, the short-term plan is for Russia to bomb insurgent strongholds and provide close air support to Syrian troops and Iranian “helpers”, who will try to clean up as much area as possible in a few months. While Russia claims to bomb ISIS, just like the US, Canada and France, in reality initial attacks hit areas controlled by other insurgents in many cases.
The recent news from Syria primarily involve Russia one way or another, and this probably prompted the question in the first place. Given that most of the Middle East, including the Gulf Monarchies, Egypt and Israel, are against Assad, Russia is ruining its Middle East policy in the long term. In particular, Jaish al-Islam declared war on Russians fighting in Syria, and there are bounties for Russian pilots. In comparison, the West, Turkey and the Gulf Monarchies are being more careful (and Israel is staying as far from the warring parties and publicity as possible, while retaining the Golan heights as a buffer). Few countries in the Middle East take Syrian refugees -Turkey, Jordan, and most of all Lebanon (up to a third of its population in 2015). Russia has been taking Syrian refugees for a long time, about 12K total as of September 2015. The EU countries recently took a large number of Syrian refugees and promised to take more. The US announced a large program to settle Syrian refugees.
In response to Russia’s bombardment of moderate opposition groups, the US and the Saudis started supplying those groups with new weapons, and this had significant effect on the battlefield: U.S.-Made Weaponry Is Turning Syrian Conflict Into Proxy War With Russia.
Analysis. Why is Russia, unlike others, spending precious resources on this and staking its political credibility? First, it apparently hopes to keep its new airbase near the Mediterranean to support future naval operations in the region. As long as Assad controls even a small part of Syrian territory, Russian presence their is more legal than the airstrikes by the US, Canada and France (even though there are dozens of countries that support Western airstrikes).
Russia’s long-term objective in Syria is to block Saudi pipelines that might cross Syria into Turkey to deliver cheap oil and natural gas to Europe (most of Russia’s oil is sold in Europe, so it’s a matter of competition). Russia can’t succeed in the long term by supporting an unpopular government hated by the Syrian people and neighbor countries, but every extra year of involvement keeps oil prices higher than what they could have been, and also delays Saudi pipelines – an investment that is paying off.
Forecast. In the long term, the Gulf monarchies and perhaps Turkey will likely achieve their goals in the region. When that happens, the West will have more access to the region through trade. Russia may retain their airbase in Latakia (or not), whereas Iran might be the biggest loser at the end because their proxy Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon will lose its supply routes through Syria and may be unable to continue its current strength where it controls a fraction of the Lebanese parliament.
By: Igor Markov
There are many ways you can look at things happening in Syria. Here we’re sharing views of 3 Quora writers who’ve written great answers to this question and they’ll definitely help you understand the conflict in a better way.
View 1: Culmination of multiple events starting from 2003
What is happening in Syria has a lot to do with what happened in Iraq and is a culmination of a lot of events starting from the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. The below points will put forward my arguments supported by references/sources.
In the above pic, the red area is the area that is infested by ISIS militants. You can see how it expanded from Iraq to Syria.
In the above pic, only the Syrian map is shown, here you can see the areas controlled by both ISIS/ISIL and the rebels(“Free” Syrian Army).
Above pic shows the air strike done by Russians and the US on various locations in Syria.
View 2: It’s a proxy war between Iran and Saudia Arabia
The Syrian war is a complex conflict, in order to understand it, you need to have a good overview of every groups involved. If the war started by some socials and political revendication, now This war is mainly a proxy war between Iran and Saudia Arabia. If you don’t understand this, you can’t get any clue why all these people are fighting for. Many vassals/allys are involved too so it’s why I’m gonna start by presenting every force in the Battlefield :
Iran :
commander : Ali Khamenei
who : Iran is a long time enemy of the Saudi and many arabs because of thousands reasons mainly cultural, historical and geopolitical. Get this in your head, Iran hates Saudi and Saudi hates Persian. Saudians even ask the Americans to attack them. In the past, Iran was also an Irak ennemy but since the fall of saddam, they have managed to secure one part of this country as an ally and to put the USA (another enemy) into a deadly and expensive war.
why : El-Assad is one of the few ally that Iran have. Since Ahmadinhejab, Iran is very isolated both in diplomatic and economics field. If Syria fall, the next target is obviously Iran. It’s why Iran is sending a lot of weapons,, “volunteers” and technical advisors for El-Assad.
bonus : El-Assad is an alaoui (a branch of the shiism) so are the Iranians
Syria :
commander :
who : Until the accidental death of his brother, Bachar was not involved in politics nor in army. In 2000, when his father die, he took control of the government, the army and the Baath party (only allowed). Many thought that he would be more soft than his father since he lived a long time in England.
why : In the wake of the arab Spring and the shameful fall of Ben Ali, Bachar choose an hard line to repress the mass protestations. After very tough starts, he have been able to keep fighting thanks to massive Iranian help.
Hezbollah :
commander : Hassan Nasrallah
who : The Hezbollah (meaning the party of God) has been created after the Lebanon war of 1982. Like the other shi’a group, Hezbollah has always been backed by the Iranian who use them to fight the Israelien sometimes successfully like in 2006. Hezbollah is powerful and well organized.
why : Nasrallah have stated : “If Syria falls into the hand of America, Israel and takfiris, the resistance (Hezbollah) will be besieged and Israel will enter Lebanon and impose its will.” Therefore, the immediate interest of the Hezbullah is to keep a friendly state in Syria and Iran because if they fall, Hezbullah will be soon defeated.
Iraq :
commander : Moqtada Al Sadr
who : Al Sadr is a son of an prominent shia ayatollah killed by Saddam. During the second Iraq war, he led the resistance against the USA. His partisans are essentially based in the south of the Iraq around the city of Nadjaf or Bassorah. He is an ally of Iran.
why : Officially, the Mahdi Army is in Syria to protect a famous shrine near Damas. In fact, many see Al Sadr as a puppet of the Iran and they want to fights iraqi sunnis too.
Russia :
commander : Vladimir Putin
who : USSR then Russia have backed Arab Socialist oriented nations since the 50’s like Egypt, Syria, Yemen etc
why : Russia got in Syria an harbour in warm water at Tartus. Let’s talk wikipedia : Tartus is the last Russian military base outside the former Soviet Union, and its only Mediterranean fueling spot, sparing Russia’s warships the trip back to their Black Sea bases through straits in Turkey, a NATO member. Plus, Syria always bought weapons from USSR/Russia. Russia is also a small support of the Iranians mainly because they are opposed to the USA.
Now let’s see the Saudi side.
Syrian rebels also knows as National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces or Free Syrian Army:
commander : Salim Idriss
who : a coalition of various forces opposed to Bashar. There is a lot of civilian harmed by El-Assad, many sunni who lost everything but overall many military who fled Bashar Army for various reasons. Shortly after the begining of the revolution, the FSA start their operations.
why : FSA stated that their only goal is to remove Assad from power. They operate in the whole country (countryside include) and led thousands attacks against loyal forces. They are the secular part of the rebellion. FSA is backed by France, Uk, Europe, USA, Turkey, Saudia Arabia and recognized by many countries.
Saudi Arabia :
commander : Abdullah of Saudi Arabia
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wiki…
who : The Saudians and various emirates of the Gulf like Qatar are involved with the rebels
why :
The Saudians are like i have said a long time enemy of the Iranians. They are involved in this war by funding heavily the islamist rebels and organizing the diplomatic support.
commander : Abu Mohammad al-Golani
who : Al-Nusra is an army of sunnite djihadist listed as terrorist by the UNO why arabs (algerians, egyptians, palestinians, jordanians, saudians) and others country like the Tchetchens or the Algerians. They are affiliated to Al Qaeda and are describing themselves like an extension of Al Qaeda Iraq.
why : El Assad were the enemy of sunnites islamist like all the other “socialist” leaders (Nasser, Khadafi, Ben Ali etc).Al Nusra is heavily backed by the Turkish and the Qatar.
USA and his occidentals vassal
commander : Barack Obama
who : USA are enemy of the Iran since 1979 plus they are one of the close ally of Saudians and Israeliens
why : Due to excessive political and economical pressure, USA can’t afford to intervene directly (like in Libya) but they support the rebels by isolating El Assad. They have started to provide some light weaponry and intelligence
Israel :
commander : Benjamin Netanyahu
who : Israel is a enemy of Syria since 1948. They are occupying the Golan Heights (which is part of Syria). Syria is also one of the main support of the Hezbollah who are one of the deadliest enemy of Israel.
how : Israel want to weaken Syria position which was quite strong. They have bombed some Syrian plants, factory and AA sites.
Turkey
commander : Recep Tayip Erdogan
who : Syria and Turkey always had complex relations. Once part of the ottoman empire, Syria have alterned with turkey various years of warm and cold. While El Assad father was president, relations were really cold because Syria was in the Soviet influence (while Turkey in the USA side). Turkey have constructed a lot of dam to keep all the Euphrates and Tigris water. On the other side, El Assad have support the PKK (who were the worst enemy of the turkish). Before the syrian uprising, the relationship were a bit more warm.
why : Erdogan was seeing himself like a model for the muslim world but when he have see the Kurdish uprising being successful in the northern part of Syria, he choose to intervene massively by providing heavy support for Islamist rebels (hospital, money, tanks, artillery, weapons, intelligence).
There is third party involved, the Kurdish who are trying to liberate themselves from decades of arab repression.
YPG : People’s Protection Units
commander :
who : YPG are the armed forces of the Kurdish uprising in Syria. It’s mainly a militia (even if they are thousands and thousands) backed by PKK. They have several strongholds in the northern parts of the country where the Kurdish are the majority
why : Kurdish have faced a long time oppression where almost any rights have been denied. They are supposed to be 3 millions. They try to follow the same way of the Kurdish of Iraq (independance de facto). They face everyday heavy islamist assault.
PKK :
commander : Murat Karayılan
who : once a marxist-leninist party based in Turkey, PKK is a party very powerful, deeply rooted in every parts of Kurdistan and in the Kurdish diaspora.After decades of bloody gerilla against the Turkish army, PKK is now seeking a political solution.
why : once an ally of El-assad (Ocalan, the historical leader was during years in the Bekaa), PKK is trying to get the opportunity of an autonomy for the Kurdish in Syria. They have proclaim a cease fire with the Turks and they are moving their units in Syria
commander : Massoud Barzani
who : son of the legendary Kurdish fighter Mustafa Barzani, Barzani is actually the most powerful kurdish leader. He leads the independant (de facto but not officially) Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq. Thanks to the oil, the KDP is rich and very powerful (dozens of thousands fighters very well equiped)
why : As a prominent leader, Barzani try to unify under his control all Kurdish parts but he got actually some good relations with Turkey and USA.
By : Martin Dupont
View 3: Rich people trying to get even richer
Here’s probably the shortest and simplest explanation of why the whole Syria thing happened, and what’s behind all of it:
So there’s this big ass oil and gas field that’s half in Qatar and half in Iran.
Qatar wanted to make some money from it, so Qatar along with Saudi Arabia decided to make a natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe, which was going to pass through Syria.
They have asked Assad to give them permission to build it, but he said a big fat NO.
Later, Iran wanted to make a pipeline which would be passing through Syria, and Assad said YES.
This has made Qatar, Saudi Arabia and by extension USA very angry, since they also have a massive interest in making sure this fuel from Qatar goes to Europe.
As a result, they all threatened Assad, and the whole revolution thing was set in motion, by labeling Assad as a mad dictator, pointing all mass media to him, and deciding to “bring some freedom to his country” because he apparently “started murdering his own people” and so on and so forth. Even though most Syrians support Assad.
Now you might ask – “Why is Russia helping Syria?”
Well, because every European knows that Europe is buying its gas from Russia, so building a pipeline from Qatar to Europe would drastically affect the Russian economy, and enrich Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the US – making sure the petrodollar stays strong.
Billions of dollars have been invested into this revolution; from spreading propaganda through mass media, to using Islam as a weapon and supplying extremists with arms.
Who has to profit the most if Assad falls? Saudi Arabia, Qatar, USA – all because of oil and gas.
Who has to profit the most if Assad remains? Syria, Russia – all because of oil and gas.
Ultimately, it’s completely up to Syria as a sovereign nation to choose who they do business with. But some people don’t like or respect that, and want things their way, so they want to remove the current government and put someone else in place. Someone who shares their views and profits.
And can you now deduce who started it all, and why?
That’s right. But Syria and Russia still get all the hate pointed towards them through mass media. And it’s easy to hate Russians now, what with the whole Ukraine fiasco still fresh in everyone’s minds.
In the end, it’s all about greed and money for a select few incredibly rich groups to become even richer. Someone’s going to utilize that oil and gas field eventually, and they’ll make hundreds of billions, if not trillions.
Everyone’s trying to make sure it’s them, and not the other side.
But who suffers the most because of this? Your average everyday people, while rich men fill their pockets with more money.
Quite a sad state of affairs, if you ask me.
While certain people will profit from this fossil fuel field, all it does now is just breed incredible hate in ordinary people of all the countries involved who don’t have a stake in any of it – pitting them against each other because they blindly believe that their country is always in the right no matter what.
I’m as neutral as you can get in any of this, and carefully research both sides of the conflict since I’m fluent in these languages. Don’t hate.
I usually keep my political opinions to myself – but there’s just too much misinformation going on regarding Syria.
Also, this bullshit can easily escalate into WW3, given enough trigger happy idiots who blindly follow orders.
It’s funny how we’re lead to believe that Assad is the dumbest idiot dictator on the planet, because he invited UN inspectors to come to his country – and on the very day that he brought them in, he somehow decides to attack and bomb HIS OWN PEOPLE, 10 miles away from where the inspectors arrive.
Seems legit.
Ex-Marine Goes Crazy, Blows Whistle On Syrian False Flag and Real Agenda
By: Andrius Saulis
Prepare for GD/PI 