Historical background. Syria has been ruled by dictators for dozens of years – first by Assad the father (Hafez al-Assad), then by Assad the son (Bashar al-Assad). The Assads belonged to a branch of the Ba’ath Party which also ruled Iraq under Saddam Hussein. The House of Assad is mostly secular, but represents a minority Muslim sect called the Alawis that populate an area along the Mediterranean coast, while most of Syria does not belong to this sect. Hence the popular uprising a few years ago during the Arab Spring when the people of several Muslim countries threw away unpopular governments. Clearly, Assad’s claims to have been elected by an overwhelming majority were false, and the elections were not legitimate, as asserted by the Gulf Cooperation Council, the EU, the US, and UN’s Secretary General.
Foreign involvement. Syria would have gone the same way as other Arab spring countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya) if not for Russia and Iran (a Shiite Muslim country), which supported Assad with weapons, ammunition, military advisors and troops. Nevertheless, the insurgency (supported by the Gulf Monarchies, dominated by Sunni Muslims, and partially by the US) managed to grind down the Syrian military. Syria’s immediate neighbors are trying to stay out of the conflict, although Jordan is hosting training camps for some opposition groups. Turkey and Israel have strong militaries capable of resolving the conflict, but would not be welcome by Arabs in Syria or elsewhere. Also, Turkey is not on good terms with Syrian Kurds that control areas adjacent to the Turkish border, because Turkish Kurds have been defying the government for a very long time. Turkey is a NATO country, and is backed up by NATO members – the US, the UK, France, Canada and the Netherlands. Other key players in the region – Saudi Arabia, Israel and Jordan (smaller, but has a significant border with Syria) – are close US allies. Keep in mind that India is not taking sides, due to its long tradition of being non-aligned in world conflicts. China is not taking sides because it rarely shows keen interest in conflicts far away from East and Southeast Asia.
Parties to the conflict. Given that Syria has many religions and sects, the insurgency consists of many groups that aren’t friends or allies. Syrian Kurds in the North are strong and control their territory, but don’t try to expand (they are supported by the US, but have complicated relations with Turkey). The Free Syrian Army is considered moderate and aims for Syria’s key population centers, it is supported by the Gulf monarchies and partially by the US. Jaysh al-Islam is a large and fairly successful umbrella group with support from Saudi Arabia. The al-Nusra Front is part of Al Qaeda and considered terrorist. Some groups are condemned by Al Qaeda for their cruelty and disregard for human life, they are viewed by most as pure eveil (they execute hostages, rape and enslave women of different faith, force men to fight against their will, etc). They are called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) or Daeish, are Sunni, are most successful in the battlefield, control sparsely populated areas and operate oil wells. The US has been reluctant to send advanced weapons to moderate fighters, fearing the weapons could end up with ISIS. Russia (where most Muslims are Sunni) and Iran (Shia) support only the Syrian government, claim to attack ISIS, but in reality do not make a distinction between ISIS and other insurgent groups.
All countries are officially against ISIS, but ISIS seems to draw support from some shadowy foreign forces and managed to attract thousands of Muslim fighters from all of the world – about 1700 from Russia (by Russian estimates), several times more from Western Europe, and even more from nearby countries. At some point, ISIS extended the fight into Iraq and overrun Iraqi army in Mosul, capturing US-supplied tanks and armored vehicles. In response, the US helped reorganize the Iraqi government and military, supplied military instructors and helped with airstrikes. Most of the captured hardware is now destroyed by US, French, Canadian, Australian, Saudi and Jordanian airstrikea, putting ISIS on the defensive in Iraq and Syria. Iran helped Iraq and Syria a lot with ground forces and training (which is not surprising, given a long shared border and a common dominant religion – Shia Islam, whereas ISIS is Sunni).
Recent developments. The Syrian government does not control most of the territory and lost some major population centers. Russia’s and Iran’s past support were not enough, as government forces lost strategic military bases, and Russia could not reliably base its troops in Syria. So, Russia built a new air force base in Latakia with barracks for 2K troops (Assad asked Russia to do that). It recently stationed 30-40 airplanes there, along with helicopters, and 500 marines as guards. It also sent irregulars (some with experience from E.Ukraine) to a remote Syrian airbase that has been surrounded by the insurgents for a long time. Apparently, the short-term plan is for Russia to bomb insurgent strongholds and provide close air support to Syrian troops and Iranian “helpers”, who will try to clean up as much area as possible in a few months. While Russia claims to bomb ISIS, just like the US, Canada and France, in reality initial attacks hit areas controlled by other insurgents in many cases.
The recent news from Syria primarily involve Russia one way or another, and this probably prompted the question in the first place. Given that most of the Middle East, including the Gulf Monarchies, Egypt and Israel, are against Assad, Russia is ruining its Middle East policy in the long term. In particular, Jaish al-Islam declared war on Russians fighting in Syria, and there are bounties for Russian pilots. In comparison, the West, Turkey and the Gulf Monarchies are being more careful (and Israel is staying as far from the warring parties and publicity as possible, while retaining the Golan heights as a buffer). Few countries in the Middle East take Syrian refugees -Turkey, Jordan, and most of all Lebanon (up to a third of its population in 2015). Russia has been taking Syrian refugees for a long time, about 12K total as of September 2015. The EU countries recently took a large number of Syrian refugees and promised to take more. The US announced a large program to settle Syrian refugees.
In response to Russia’s bombardment of moderate opposition groups, the US and the Saudis started supplying those groups with new weapons, and this had significant effect on the battlefield: U.S.-Made Weaponry Is Turning Syrian Conflict Into Proxy War With Russia.
Analysis. Why is Russia, unlike others, spending precious resources on this and staking its political credibility? First, it apparently hopes to keep its new airbase near the Mediterranean to support future naval operations in the region. As long as Assad controls even a small part of Syrian territory, Russian presence their is more legal than the airstrikes by the US, Canada and France (even though there are dozens of countries that support Western airstrikes).
Russia’s long-term objective in Syria is to block Saudi pipelines that might cross Syria into Turkey to deliver cheap oil and natural gas to Europe (most of Russia’s oil is sold in Europe, so it’s a matter of competition). Russia can’t succeed in the long term by supporting an unpopular government hated by the Syrian people and neighbor countries, but every extra year of involvement keeps oil prices higher than what they could have been, and also delays Saudi pipelines – an investment that is paying off.
Forecast. In the long term, the Gulf monarchies and perhaps Turkey will likely achieve their goals in the region. When that happens, the West will have more access to the region through trade. Russia may retain their airbase in Latakia (or not), whereas Iran might be the biggest loser at the end because their proxy Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon will lose its supply routes through Syria and may be unable to continue its current strength where it controls a fraction of the Lebanese parliament.
By: Igor Markov
Prepare for GD/PI 